Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Like I said in my yearly roundup, I’ve been unable to rank this year’s movies, having liked a lot of them, but not definitively LOVED any of them. Conventional wisdom has Argo losing because of Ben Affleck’s snub, but I’m convinced that snub helped the film more than it hurt. The Academy wants to reward him, and this is where they’ll do it. As for me, I’ve gone back and forth between Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and Silver Linings Playbook for weeks trying to decide my personal favorite. It’s a moot point at this juncture, so I’ll say the move that should win is the one that I’m most anxious to see again, which at this point is Zero Dark Thirty. Note: I’ve seen Argo twice and Silver Linings Playbook three times.
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Argo
Best Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
I really liked Lincoln. I saw it twice, and enjoyed it both times. I respect Spielberg’s commitment to bringing this version of Lincoln’s life to the screen. I appreciate his direction to writer Tony Kushner to focus just on the amendment’s passage. I just can’t muster up much enthusiasm for the film besides Daniel Day-Lewis' performance. So I guess he gets credit for hiring him? Eh, I’m more impressed with Ang Lee. He directed a massive movie, in 3D, which featured water, animals, unknown actors and what many called an unfilmable novel. That’s enough reasons for me. Yes, most of what I’ve read calls this category for Spielberg, but I’m letting this be my wild card category.
Should Win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Will Win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
This category was over when Day-Lewis’ casting was announced. Better luck next time gentleman, but thanks for playing.
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
The Impossible is one of the few movies in major categories that I haven’t seen, so I can’t speak on Watts’ performance with much authority. Emmanuelle Riva broke my heart in Amour and I would not be mad if she won. Quvenzhané Wallis is adorable and was fantastic in a kid-actors-are-usually-terrible way. So that leaves Lawrence and Chastain. Lawrence has this category pretty much sewed up, and she deserves it. Hers is the performance with the most diversity. She’s funny, heartbreaking, crazy and sexy, all in the same role. She has the most to do character-wise, hence why she’s as close to a frontrunner as the category has. Personally, I’m more impressed with what Chastain was able to do with so little. We don’t get to know her Maya. We just get to see her laser focus on accomplishing her mission. It’s a quieter performance, but I think that makes it the more powerful. Especially, at the end, when she’s accomplished her mission and we get the payoff of two hours of her stoic, determinism—a human moment that completely saved the movie from being completely cold.
Should Win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
I had the most fun watching Alan Arkin, and I wish he’d gotten more push in this category. However, it was not meant to be. I see it as a toss-up between De Niro, Lee Jones and Waltz. I think PSH’s is critics’ actual favorite, but critics don’t vote for the Academy. He is remarkable, but I think the polarizing nature of the film as whole counts against him. As for the frontrunners, I enjoyed Lee Jones the most, so I have him taking it.
Should Win: Alan Arkin, Argo
Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Another lock, and for good reason—Anne Hathaway is the best part of an overstuffed, hyper-emotional act-off. In another year, Helen Hunt would have my vote. I really enjoyed The Sessions and am still smarting from John Hawkes snub for Best Actor. But this is Hathaway’s to lose, and she just won’t.
Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Will Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Other Category Predictions
Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Foreign Language Film: Amour
Production Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup: Les Misérables
Sound Editing: Skyfall
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
Documentary Short Subject: Mondays at Racine
Film Editing: Argo
Short Film, Animated: Paperman
Short Film, Life Action: Curfew
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Original Score: Life of Pi
Original Song: “Skyfall”
