Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Let's start with the WHY nominees. Philomena, you are a very sweet and affecting little movie. But I'm afraid no one will remember you after ... wait no one can remember that you are even nominated period. Sorry, Dame Judi. Everyone else, you are all worthy and welcome in this category. Her is the movie I swoon just thinking about (see here), but I have equally strong feelings on The Wolf of Wall Street, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. Conventional wisdom has this category as a tight race between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, and for good reason. Both are incredibly powerful films and crowning achievements in cinema, but I give the edge to 12 Years a Slave. The academy loves its Best Picture winners to honor "important" films, but more than that, while Gravity has visuals that will be rightfully remembered, 12 Years a Slave has a story that everyone should be REQUIRED to watch for many years to come. That makes is sound like homework, but I don't mean it to. It should be required not only because of it's subject matter, but also because it is a completely engrossing and beautiful piece of movie making.
My vote: Her
Will in: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Man, what a category! I wouldn't be mad if any of these guys took home the prize. How did a 71-year-old create the insanity that is The Wolf of Wall Street? Well, he was Martin Scorsese, that's how. Alexander Payne captures the Midwest in devastating detail in Nebraska. David O. Russell has proved himself to be a ringmaster of absolutely mental performances in American Hustle. But this is where I think Gravity will and should succeed. Yes, without Steve McQueen 12 Years a Slave would be a very different, and probably a less impactful film. However, without Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity simply wouldn't exist. He literally invented technology that could give him the film he wanted. But the best part is, the film feels effortless when really it took an herculean amount of work to make, and that is something definitely worth honoring.
My vote: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Will in: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Some media I've read is still saying this category is up for grabs. Granted, I'd be incredibly happy to see Leo collect his first well-deserved Oscar or even watch Chiwetel thank the real-life Solomon Northup at that podium, but those writing that either of those scenarios are still a possibility are underestimating the power of the McConaissance. And unlike the annoying "It's time" story line assigned to Sandra Bullock for that travesty The Blind Side, McConaughey actually really deserves his Oscar for his heartbreaking performance as AIDS-afflicted Ron Woodruff. Yes, there are shades of his classic Wooderson accent, but otherwise, he's almost completely unrecognizable. Considering the majority of his career was spent playing the same womanizing beefcake, it's really is McConaughey's time.
My vote: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Will in: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
This category is tougher than it looks at first glance. Cate Blanchett is widely considered a lock for her staggering portrayal of an unraveling former socialite in Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine. And while I won't be mad if she collects the award, I'm more impressed by the craft of two other nominees: Sandra Bullock and Amy Adams. Being able to hold an audience's attention almost completely on your own for 90 minutes is a feat worth celebrating, and Sandra Bullock just killed it. I'd say the same of Joaquin Phoenix had he been nominated for Her. The movie only works because we care if she lives or dies. That's at the root of why it takes your breath away, and I'm not sure how well it would have worked with it's original casting of Angelina Jolie or Natalie Portman. I wish Bullock hadn't already won for an incredibly subpar movie. Then, there is Amy Adams. How has she not won an Oscar yet? The five-time nominee really deserves it this time. As the center of much of American Hustle's drama, Adams plays two characters beautifully, easily slipping in and out of each one with ease. Her scenes with Bradley Cooper, first in a bathroom stall, and later in her apartment are a masterclass in manipulation and heartbreak. So while Blanchett will probably win for her flashier turn, my heart belongs to the best hustler in a movie filled with them.
My vote: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Will in: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
I would make an impassioned defense of Michael Fassbender here because he is absolutely magnificent in 12 Years a Slave, even better on a rewatch, but this category rightly belongs to Jared Leto. I was even surprised how much more I enjoyed Bradley Cooper on my second viewing of American Hustle and Jonah Hill and Barkhad Abdi are both wonderful surprises, but Leto's performance was simply transformative. And not just in the physical sense, which is obvious and less interesting to me. But in the sense that I completely forgot about any other role I'd ever seen him in. More so than McConaughey, Leto is the heart of Dallas Buyers Club. When I watched Rayon make herself the epitome of uncomfortable by putting on a suit, I couldn't help but be astounded by the brilliant sadness and steeliness of Leto's performance. It's something incredibly special and it deserves the Oscar it will surely receive on Sunday.
Should win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Will in: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
The nomination is gift enough for Sally Hawkins and even more than that Julia Roberts name here is a simple star placation, much like her costar Meryl's place in Best Actress. Then there is June Squibb, who is hilarious and wonderful in Nebraska. However, I know I am not alone in being over the trope of older women playing crass and getting praise. You can almost hear the squeak of "Oh look how cute that mean old lady is." I don't want to take away from her performance, because it is so fun and strong, but eh, I'm just over roles like that. In the other corner is Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle, which is clearly just the latest stop of her charm offensive. I join the world in loving Lawrence on and off screen. She's probably the funniest part of American Hustle and she moves easily from the comedy to the drama, just like she did for her Oscar-winning role last year in Silver Lining's Playbook. However, I couldn't help shake the feeling that she was playing dress-up most of the time. I actually think she is put to better use in Catching Fire for a JLaw 2013 performance worth lauding. That leaves Lupita Nyomg'o, who was my favorite part of 12 Years a Slave even before she showed herself to be a fashion powerhouse and just an utterly charming young person in interviews. Her Patsey is a mountain of beautiful played sadness and desperation in a film filled with it. Her dynamic with both Chiwetel Ejiofor and Michael Fassbender is stunning, with special mention for the scene when she (SPOILER) begs Ejiofor's Solomon to kill her. She is so resolved in her decision that we almost hope he actually does it for her. She is simply brilliant and I hope the Academy can see through its crush on Lawrence to reward her for it.
Should win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Will in: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Other Category Predictions
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
This category is tougher than it looks at first glance. Cate Blanchett is widely considered a lock for her staggering portrayal of an unraveling former socialite in Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine. And while I won't be mad if she collects the award, I'm more impressed by the craft of two other nominees: Sandra Bullock and Amy Adams. Being able to hold an audience's attention almost completely on your own for 90 minutes is a feat worth celebrating, and Sandra Bullock just killed it. I'd say the same of Joaquin Phoenix had he been nominated for Her. The movie only works because we care if she lives or dies. That's at the root of why it takes your breath away, and I'm not sure how well it would have worked with it's original casting of Angelina Jolie or Natalie Portman. I wish Bullock hadn't already won for an incredibly subpar movie. Then, there is Amy Adams. How has she not won an Oscar yet? The five-time nominee really deserves it this time. As the center of much of American Hustle's drama, Adams plays two characters beautifully, easily slipping in and out of each one with ease. Her scenes with Bradley Cooper, first in a bathroom stall, and later in her apartment are a masterclass in manipulation and heartbreak. So while Blanchett will probably win for her flashier turn, my heart belongs to the best hustler in a movie filled with them.
My vote: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Will in: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
I would make an impassioned defense of Michael Fassbender here because he is absolutely magnificent in 12 Years a Slave, even better on a rewatch, but this category rightly belongs to Jared Leto. I was even surprised how much more I enjoyed Bradley Cooper on my second viewing of American Hustle and Jonah Hill and Barkhad Abdi are both wonderful surprises, but Leto's performance was simply transformative. And not just in the physical sense, which is obvious and less interesting to me. But in the sense that I completely forgot about any other role I'd ever seen him in. More so than McConaughey, Leto is the heart of Dallas Buyers Club. When I watched Rayon make herself the epitome of uncomfortable by putting on a suit, I couldn't help but be astounded by the brilliant sadness and steeliness of Leto's performance. It's something incredibly special and it deserves the Oscar it will surely receive on Sunday.
Should win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Will in: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
The nomination is gift enough for Sally Hawkins and even more than that Julia Roberts name here is a simple star placation, much like her costar Meryl's place in Best Actress. Then there is June Squibb, who is hilarious and wonderful in Nebraska. However, I know I am not alone in being over the trope of older women playing crass and getting praise. You can almost hear the squeak of "Oh look how cute that mean old lady is." I don't want to take away from her performance, because it is so fun and strong, but eh, I'm just over roles like that. In the other corner is Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle, which is clearly just the latest stop of her charm offensive. I join the world in loving Lawrence on and off screen. She's probably the funniest part of American Hustle and she moves easily from the comedy to the drama, just like she did for her Oscar-winning role last year in Silver Lining's Playbook. However, I couldn't help shake the feeling that she was playing dress-up most of the time. I actually think she is put to better use in Catching Fire for a JLaw 2013 performance worth lauding. That leaves Lupita Nyomg'o, who was my favorite part of 12 Years a Slave even before she showed herself to be a fashion powerhouse and just an utterly charming young person in interviews. Her Patsey is a mountain of beautiful played sadness and desperation in a film filled with it. Her dynamic with both Chiwetel Ejiofor and Michael Fassbender is stunning, with special mention for the scene when she (SPOILER) begs Ejiofor's Solomon to kill her. She is so resolved in her decision that we almost hope he actually does it for her. She is simply brilliant and I hope the Academy can see through its crush on Lawrence to reward her for it.
Should win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Will in: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Other Category Predictions
Best Original Screenplay: Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Animated Feature: Frozen
Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty
Production Design: The Great Gatsby
Makeup: Dallas Buyers Club
Sound Editing: Gravity
Sound Mixing: Gravity
Visual Effects: Gravity
Cinematography: Gravity
Documentary Feature: 20 Feet from Stardom
Documentary Short Subject: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Film Editing: Gravity
Short Film, Animated: Get a Horse!
Short Film, Life Action: Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Actually saw these and this one was by far my favorite)
Costume Design: The Great Gatsby
Original Score: Gravity (But I wish Her)
Original Song: "Let It Go" from Frozen
Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty
Production Design: The Great Gatsby
Makeup: Dallas Buyers Club
Sound Editing: Gravity
Sound Mixing: Gravity
Visual Effects: Gravity
Cinematography: Gravity
Documentary Feature: 20 Feet from Stardom
Documentary Short Subject: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Film Editing: Gravity
Short Film, Animated: Get a Horse!
Short Film, Life Action: Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Actually saw these and this one was by far my favorite)
Costume Design: The Great Gatsby
Original Score: Gravity (But I wish Her)
Original Song: "Let It Go" from Frozen
