I was looking over my post from last year, and how many big awards I actually got wrong. I pray for those kind of surprises from this year's show, but alas, I think we're in for show full of the expected. It seems like the major awards are already all decided, so before I join the masses in making those expected picks, I'll offer some predictions for the show itself. I predict lots of politics, hopefully some powerful and inspiring speeches, and annoying Jimmy Kimmel bits (probably with an assist from Matt Damon, if we're being honest). Also, check out my food picks for this year's nominees.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Moonlight
I'm happy to say that I really liked a lot of the movies on this list. Besides Hacksaw Ridge (just nothing special), I would watch them all again (and have seen several of them more than once). Hidden Figures is an incredible story that deserved to be told, and the movie is completely entertaining and more than competently made, but also is traditional almost to a fault. I've seen La La Land four times. I totally fell for all of its charms and have defended it up and down against claims that it's purely superficial fun. It is pure, superficial fun, but the second half makes it something more. As this Variety article argues, it denies us the beats of the movie we thought we were watching to deliver something that is more real, and ultimately, heartbreaking. I won't begrudge it winning Best Picture, but if I had a real vote, I'd cast it for Moonlight. It's the movie I've thought about the most since seeing, and the one that left a more powerful impression on me through its combination of story, performances, editing and music.
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Should Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
This is where I really wish Moonlight could pull out a surprise. Then all would feel right in the world. My two favorite movies would split the two big awards, and Barry Jenkins would get all the recognition that he deserves. Damien Chazelle is clearly a prodigy (the guy is younger than me!) and he did amazing work on La La Land, but Jenkins pulling three incredible performances from three very different actors that actually add up to a cohesive story is nothing short of a miracle.
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Should Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
This used to be a neck-and-neck race between two of my favorite actresses: Natalie Portman and Emma Stone. Somehow, Jackie has faded fast from the conversation, even though Portman is stunning in the title role. In fact, had you asked me a month ago I would have said Portman should win in a landslide. But I get why Emma is poised for the win. La La Land's success is more tied to Stone's performance than Gosling's. If the movie is a success, it's because of her eyes. Any one moment that made me actually feel is because of her. Natalie has her Oscar, it's Emma's time to shine.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Should Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
This is one of the tightest categories this year, which comes as a bit of surprise. All season Casey Affleck's quiet, intense performance was a virtual lock. Then his past came to haunt him. When Denzel won the Screen Actor's Guild Award it became clear that Affleck had lost favor with the largest branch of the Academy. Not that he's not deserving. He's a titanic force in Fences. It's the kind of role that usually wins Oscars, in fact it's not all that different from the role that won him his last Oscar — loud, brash and endlessly actor-y. I won't begrudge him a win, but I still wish Affleck's restrained performance would win the prize. It's the harder job sometimes to tell a story with just a look in the eyes and a grimace. Maybe he'll win an Emmy for this gem as a consolation prize.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Should Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Do I even need to expend energy justifying this pick? I really don't think so. Viola Davis is going to win her (completely deserved) long overdue Oscar. These are facts. Can't wait to hear your speech, Vi!
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Possibly my favorite performance in any category this year, Mahershala Ali deserves to win this, and I really believe he will. He's only in the first section of the movie, and yet his presence and influence is felt throughout. The scene where he teaches Little to swim is one of the most beautiful scenes of the year. I'm not alone, here. Everyone is crushing on him, so Oscar should follow suit.
And here are my predictions for the rest of the categories:
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Best Documentary Feature
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Best Makeup
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Best Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Best Original Song
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land
"Can’t Stop The Feeling" from Trolls
"City Of Stars" from La La Land
"The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story
"How Far I’ll Go" from Moana
Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
