2015 Oscar Picks

Last year I only missed two categories. TWO. Those damn shorts get me every time. I don't have near the confidence I did last year in this year's picks, but take them for what you will.

Best Picture

'American Sniper'
'Birdman'
'Boyhood'
'The Grand Budapest Hotel'
'The Imitation Game'
'Selma'
'The Theory of Everything'
'Whiplash'

This is really a two-horse race at this point, and I would really be happy either way. This was 'Boyhood's' statue to win until 'Birdman' pulled off Triple Crown from the PGA, SAG and DGA. That feat should spell a victory if precedence is to be observed. But I just have a feeling that the Academy's older demographic will be as enchanted by 'Boyhood,' as I was. While I love 'Birdman,' it doesn't evoke all the feelings like 'Boyhood' does, and I think those feelings will put it over the top. This year should be fun though, I have really no confidence in this pick. Finally, a little actual drama that should make all four hours of the show worth watching.

Will Win: 'Boyhood'

Should Win: 'Boyhood' or 'Birdman' -- I won't pick

Overlooked: 'Gone Girl'

Best Director

Wes Anderson, ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel'

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, 'Birdman'

Richard Linklater, 'Boyhood'

Bennett Miller, 'Foxcatcher'

Morten Tyldum, 'The Imitation Game'

HOW did Bennett Miller sneak into this category? People, 'Foxcatcher' was way too long and slow. There were two WAY more deserving directors that should be in his place: 'Whiplash's' Damien Chazelle and, the more egregiously snubbed, Ava DuVernay for 'Selma.' But let us not dwell on snubs — this is where I predict a Best Picture/Director split, which has been more common as recently as last year with '12 Years a Slave' splitting with 'Gravity.' As much as it pains me to admit, the gonzo ambition, craft, patience and creativity of Alejandro Iñárritu deserves a win over Linklater's equally impressive and ambitious, but decidedly non-showy, work in 'Boyhood.' 

Will Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, 'Birdman'

Should Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, 'Birdman'

Overlooked: Ava DuVernay, 'Selma'

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard, 'Two Days, One Night'

Felicity Jones, 'The Theory of Everything'

Julianne Moore, 'Still Alice'

Rosamund Pike, 'Gone Girl'

Reese Witherspoon, 'Wild'

This category has been locked up for months, sometimes it feels like years. Julianne Moore will no longer be just an Academy Award-nominated actress in movie trailers. However, I can’t help for but mourn for Rosamund Pike. She gave my favorite performance by an actress this year and I fear she won’t get a chance to play such a wonderfully wackadoo character ever again. Probably because those characters are so few and far between. But congratulations Julianne. Your performance (and movie) devastated me so much I audibly thanked god when credits started rolling. Everything you want in an Oscar winner.

Will Win: Julianne Moore, 'Still Alice'

Should Win: Rosamund Pike, 'Gone Girl'

Overlooked: Jenny Slate, 'Obvious Child'

Best Actor

Steve Carell, 'Foxcatcher'

Bradley Cooper, 'American Sniper'

Benedict Cumberbatch, 'The Imitation Game'

Michael Keaton, 'Birdman'

Eddie Redmayne, 'The Theory of Everything'

Now here's some more of that Oscar night drama. I have gone back and forth with this category for days and still am not confident about what will happen — except to say that I'm almost certain this comes down to Michael Keaton versus Eddie Redmayne, both of which are excellent choices. Bradley Cooper is a quiet dark horse, and I'll join the bandwagon in saying that David Oyelowo was flat out robbed of a nomination. However, even if he was in this mix, I don't think he could overcome Keaton and Redmayne. Most of what I've read seems to be coalescing around Redmayne, and with good reason. Yes, his physical transformation is astonishing, but it's really that twinkle in his eye that pushes his Stephen Hawking over the edge into greatness. But then there's Keaton. The movies have missed him and to get him back in such rarefied form is a gift we should not ignore. Redmayne won the SAG, which is supposed to count for a lot, but with 'Birdman' surging in the Best Picture and Director categories, will the rest of the non-actor Academy give him enough votes to pull out a victory? I really don't know, but I'm giving him the shot.

Will Win: Michael Keaton, 'Birdman'

Should Win: Michael Keaton, 'Birdman' or Eddie Redmayne, 'The Theory of Everything'

Overlooked: Jake Gyllenhall 'Nightcrawler'

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette, 'Boyhood'

Laura Dern, 'Wild'

Keira Knightley, 'The Imitation Game'

Emma Stone, 'Birdman'

Meryl Streep, 'Into the Woods'

Patricia Arquette, here is your Oscar. The scene where Mason leaves the nest should be your Oscar clip. Please don't read your speech off a piece of paper. Enjoy CSI: Cyber!

Will Win: Patricia Arquette, 'Boyhood'

Should Win: Patricia Arquette, 'Boyhood'

Overlooked: Jessica Chastain, 'A Most Violent Year'

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall, 'The Judge'

Ethan Hawke, 'Boyhood'

Edward Norton, 'Birdman'

Mark Ruffalo, 'Foxcatcher'

J.K. Simmons, 'Whiplash'

Another race that's been over for more than a year now, J.K. Simmons will be crowned Oscar winner for his terrifying, drill-sergeant-like performance in 'Whiplash.' I won't quibble, the man is wonderful in the role; but I can't help but wish Edward Norton was getting more love for his incredibly hilarious and real performance in 'Birdman.' It takes guts to play a parody of the public's perception of yourself, and he does so beautifully and with such gumption, I'd cheer if he pulled an upset. Also, I must give props to my man Ethan Hawke. Another year, and this could have been yours. I'll cross my fingers he gets the kudos you deserve for the next "Before" movie instead.

Will Win: J.K. Simmons, 'Whiplash'

Should Win: Edward Norton, 'Birdman'

Overlooked: Tom Wilkinson, 'Selma'

Other Category Predictions

Best Original Screenplay: 'The Grand Budapest Hotel'

Best Adapted Screenplay: 'Whiplash'

Animated Feature: 'Big Hero 6'

Foreign Language Film: 'Ida'

Production Design: 'The Grand Budapest Hotel'

Makeup: 'The Grand Budapest Hotel'

Sound Editing: 'American Sniper'

Sound Mixing: 'Whiplash'

Visual Effects: 'Interstellar'

Cinematography: 'Birdman'

Documentary Feature: 'Citizenfour'

Documentary Short Subject: 'Crisis Hotline'

Film Editing: 'Whiplash'

Short Film, Animated: 'Feast'

Short Film, Live Action: 'The Phone Call'

Costume Design: 'The Grand Budapest Hotel'

Original Score: 'The Theory of Everything'

Original Song: "Glory'" (But if "Everything is Awesome" wins, it will be ... you know)