It's that time again . . . Oscar time! Here are my predictions for the major categories. You know the drill, if I get 100%, you all must send me something pretty.Best Picture
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up in the Air Up
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Ok, considering they upped the nominees from five to 10, I did pretty well. I've seen them all except An Education and A Serious Man. I may make it to An Education this weekend but regardless I have a well formed opinion of most of these and I don't think my ignorance of those two will affect my decision. The Blind Side is a joke. I seriously laughed out loud when I saw it on here. I only saw it because my mom wanted to and although it's fine for its type of movie (meaning sappy and ridiculous) there is no way it deserves to be on this list. I'd rather Star Trek, Fantastic Mr. Fox, hell even The Hangover taken its place. Avatar is a phenomenal movie. In all areas besides story and dialogue, it blows the rest of these movies out of the water. However, I happen to think plot and dialogue are important in determining Best Picture, so I will be very upset if James Cameron is given the opportunity to once again make a fool out of himself, no matter how much I love what he's created. Up will win Best Animated Film so it won't get the the votes here. District 9 is the populist choice that deserves to be here but won't win. Precious' performances are the star, not the film as a whole. Up in the Air is wonderful, almost too effortless to win the big prize, so that leaves my should win, Inglourious Basterds and my will win The Hurt Locker. Inglourious Basterds is the only one on the list where my jaw was dropped at the end and I was in complete awe of what I'd just seen. It's the complete package of story, visuals and performances—truly the best picture. The Hurt Locker did something else. It has all that, plus it takes the war film and makes it not about war. Plus, it's a war film—a completely masculine genre that happened to be directed by a woman. It breaks ground in many ways and that is why it will win.
Best DirectorKathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
This is tough because in terms of direction, the sheer scope of Avatar and what it took to get made deserves recognition. That can't be denied. But I think James Cameron got that recognition in the tremendous box office of his film. He has his Oscar. Like I said above, Kathryn Bigelow made a war film not about war. It's about the men who are addicted to war. It's gritty, intimate and beautiful in its own way. All the performances are pitch perfect and, again, the fact that this man film was made by a woman can't be ignored. As for the rest of them, this is really a two-way race and they will all have other chances.
Best ActorJeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: Colin Firth
Full disclosure: I haven't seen Crazy Heart. I'm sure Jeff Bridges is great in it and he probably deserves the win he's about to get. However, I'm rooting for a personal favorite and someone who's "time" it would have been if Bridges not slipped in at the last minute, Colin Firth. A Single Man is a gorgeous film, and he is phenomenal in it as a early-1960s professor who is unable to display grief after he learns his lover (Matthew Goode) has died. It's quiet but powerful, which I often find more intriguing then chewing the scenery acting (see Christoph Waltz nomination). The same can be said of Clooney in Up in the Air, but his performance, like the movie itself, could be seen as too effortless. While it takes a lot of work to make it look so easy, I don't think this is the role that will bring him his second Oscar. There could be a surprise upset with Jeremy Renner coming to spoil Bridges' party, but I assume he'll suffer from the "he'll have other changes" brigade of Academy voters.
Best ActressSandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Meryl Streep
Full Disclosure, part II: I haven't seen The Last Station, though I don't think I'm alone in that. It barely got any press or push, though what I have read, it sounds wonderful. And I don't doubt that Helen Mirren is fantastic, but she already has her Oscar and for the more deserving role from what I can tell. Should the Academy just reward Bullock for trying something different? Something that doesn't make most of them cringe at just the preview like most of her movies of late. I don't think so. But all indications seem to be saying that she will, it's her "time" as they say. Thus Oscar will get a winner that is, by box office numbers, a fan favorite. Enjoy the ratings, too bad the best actress won't really be rewarded. That should go to Miss. Streep, who everyone knows would give a killer acceptance speech and who really deserves it for being able to channel a beloved figure like Julia Child and not make her cartoonish as she well could have been. As for Mulligan and Sidibe, the nomination is your prize.
Best Supporting ActorMatt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Hands down this belongs to Waltz for the very thing I criticized a few paragraphs above. But if you can't chew scenery in a Tarantino film, where can you? And he does it wonderfully. Equal parts charming and terrifying, his Nazi soldier is one of Tarantino's best baddies and he'll be rewarded justly for it. None of the other gentlemen measure up, I'm afraid, though Woody, it's nice to see you as always.
Best Supporting ActressPenelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhall, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'nique, Precious
Will Win: Mo'nique
Should Win: Mo'nique
This race has been over for months and all the ladies honored know it. But it is over for a reason because Mo'nique's performance as an abusive mother is just sickeningly good. If the scene in the social worker's office where she gives her "justification" for how she treats Precious doesn't make you cry, you are officially dead inside. Had it not been for her, I'd have cheered on Anna Kendrick for giving a performance that resonates strongly with those in my generation. The up-starters who think we know it all. Plus, you make Twilight bearable, so thank you for that.
So that's the major categories. The last one I mentioned already above: Best Animated Film. It will go to Up, though I'd rejoice if Fantastic Mr. Fox won, which includes my favorite Clooney and Streep roles of the year. So tune in this Sunday to see how I do, and leave comments where you think I've gone wrong.
5 comments:
I'm boycotting the Oscars this year, for the sole reason that 2012 wasn't nominated for anything.
And I'm being completely serious.
Hey George Clooney. Try getting chased by a river of hot lava as the world cracks in two. Now you're acting.
I'm thinking like a business here. (Which, no question, the Oscars are). There are ten nominees this time around. Which I understand as a ploy for increased viewership. Give Blind Side, Avatar-loving middle America something to care about, more viewership, more future advertising dollars.
Will members of the Academy feel this pressure, too? It's clear the Academy has thrown their share of bones to undeserving films/actors in the past, will they do it again, in the name of the Business of Film? Or will they vote for the film that actually merits a win the most? I think it's going to be split, and I don't know what that means to be certain. I think it means that the forerunner is either something as universally successful as Avatar, or something as inclusive as An Education. The only film I could see that fits the bill in both categories is Up. I'd be thrilled if Pixar was given their due, but we all know this won't happen.
I will be upset if the following films win: Avatar, Blind Side, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air.
I will be fine if the following win: An Education (even with it's kind of messy third act), Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up.
I'm with you on Mo'nique. I kind of don't care about the rest.
I agree that throwing 10 nominees into the mix will have an effect on what gets rewarded. Because of how the votes are tabulated, Inglourious Basterds could very well snatch away gold from Avatar and The Hurt Locker simply by being ranked #2 on many Academy members ballot.
I still think, and from what I've read it seems to be the case, that the Academy members don't care about these popular movies for the win. And despite people like Charlton Heston, who lets his grandchildren fill out his ballot, most Academy members vote for the film/person they find most worthy of the films they've seen.
Especially telling of this is an article in EW that profiled an anonymous actress, director and producer and showed us how they voted with their justifications. Very interesting to see them vote for who they like rather than who everyone is telling them will win.
Glad to have you aboard the Inglorious Basterds train. Hurt Locker was good, but IB is so crazy good. If it doesn't at least win original screenplay, I'll shed a tear.
I am surprised that no one has mentioned the fact that Stanley Tucci clearly deserves the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor. I mean, clearly. That movie was the best. Come to think of it, why didn't 'Bones get a nod for Best Cinematograph?. That scene with the ships in the bottles crashing on to the beach in Salmon's heaven? SPECTACULAR!
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