Best PictureThe Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
First the two "what were they thinking" awards go to War Horse and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. I didn't hate Extremely Loud as much as most reviews did, probably because of residual affection for the book, but by no means should it be on here over The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo or Bridesmaids. War Horse felt incredibly artificial for me. It was trying so hard to be the traditional Oscar film that it failed to make me feel anything; and I cry at EVERYTHING! No tears during a war movie—something has to be wrong. The rest of this list is filled with movies that I liked but can't muster up much passion for. The film I saw most recently was The Tree of Life, and while I enjoyed it, I'm not done thinking about it to decide if I love it. I'd say the movies that are on this list where I walked out of the theater excited by what I had just seen would be Hugo and Midnight in Paris. Hugo because I'm a film geek and the last half hour is film geek catnip, and Midnight in Paris because I love Paris and Woody Allen. The award for making me weep goes to The Descendants, which I really liked a lot. It feels effortless and obviously deals with a subject matter I have some experience in (losing a parent, not a parent cheating, just to clarify). Moneyball I also thought was very entertaining but probably not a movie I'd watch over and over again. The Artist is a completely charming movie. It's a tad overlong, which most of these are, but overall I enjoyed watching it. Would I watch it and enjoy it again? Sure. Does it feel like the best picture of 2011? Just no.
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Uh, I'll go with Hugo but I'd put The Descendants and Midnight in Paris on even keel with it.
Note: As I was writing the rest of this post I realized I failed to mention The Help at all in this section. Makes sense since I also don't understand all the hoopla about the movie itself. Its nominated performances are completely deserved. Viola Davis can do no wrong in my opinion. But The Help belongs in this category like The Blind Slide did a few years ago. NOT AT ALL. Both are enjoyable movies that got way overpraised in the interim between release and awards season.
Michel Hazanavicius--The Artist
Alexander Payne--The Descendants
Martin Scorsese--Hugo
Woody Allen--Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick--The Tree of Life
Here is where I get the admiration for Malick for sheer ambition. Does the movie succeed as much as he hoped it would? Like I said, I'm still deciding. It's my pick for the ideas he contributed to create truly remarkable and beautiful imagery (I think the film will, and should, win cinematography). I also wouldn't be upset to see Martin Scorsese win either, again, because the film was clearly a passion project for him. However, it's clear Hollywood is in love with Michel Hazanavicius and I get it to a degree. He got people to fall in love with a silent movie in 2011 (well, he and Harvey Weinstein)
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius--The Artist
Should Win: Terrence Malick--The Tree of Life
Demián Bichir--A Better Life
George Clooney--The Descendants
Jean Dujardin--The Artist
Gary Oldman--Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt--Moneyball
This is probably the toughest category to call. Convincing cases can be made for everyone on this list, most obviously George Clooney, Brad Pitt and Jean Dujardin. I have not seen in A Better Life so I can't speak to Demián Bichir. I love me some Gary Oldman and I liked Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, but his performance got a little lost for me while I was trying to figure out what the hell was going on. I'll give props to Brad Pitt making a very interesting choice, doing a wonderful job with it and for the fact that he was really a champion in getting the film made in the first place. Yes, Dujardin had to keep the move chugging along without saying a word, and he was very charming while doing so (and on SNL) but I can't say it was simply his performance that made the film so enjoyable. That movie was more the sum of its parts then just him. That being said, it is Clooney that makes The Descendants so affecting. The lost look in his eyes through most of the film keeps you just on the edge of heartbroken, until he goes ahead and pushes you over the edge at the very end.
Will Win: Jean Dujardin--The Artist
Should Win: George Clooney--The Descendants
Glenn Close--Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis--The Help
Rooney Mara--The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep--The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams--My Week with Marilyn
I have not seen The Iron Lady or Albert Nobbs but from the trailers I know exactly why these two women are here. I can say with confidence that Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is the only performance of these that I have seen where I left the theater thinking, man she did a fantastic job, and yes, I've seen the Swedish version. I have a severe girl crush on Michelle Williams and I think she was stunning in My Week with Marilyn, making a mediocre movie watchable. However, Viola Davis is just lovely in The Help. She is the reason the film itself got any notice beyond being just a serviceable adaptation of a popular book.
Will Win: Viola Davis--The Help
Should Win: Viola Davis--The Help
Kenneth Branagh--My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill--Moneyball
Nick Nolte--Warrior
Christopher Plummer--Beginners
Max von Sydow--Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Wouldn't it be amazing to see Jonah Hill win an Oscar? I hope that day comes someday. But it won't be this weekend.
Will Win: Christopher Plummer--Beginners
Should Win: Christopher Plummer--Beginners
Bérénice Bejo--The Artist
Jessica Chastain--The Help
Melissa McCarthy--Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer--Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer--The Help
Ditto above for Melissa McCarthy. It is great to see her even on the short list for a performance that despite being insane (and hilarious) is actually really grounded. This is especially evident in the scene where she confronts Kristen Wiig and then bites her on the ass and makes Wiig punch her. I hope that is the scene the Academy chooses to show as her Oscar clip. Enough about the dress shopping scene please! Regardless, it's The Help's ladies' night.
Will Win: Octavia Spencer--The Help
Should Win: Octavia Spencer--The Help
The Descendants (Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash)
Hugo (John Logan)
The Ides of March (George Clooney, Grant Heslov & Beau Willimon)
Moneyball (Steven Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan)
I haven't read any of the books (or seen The Ides of March as a play) these movies were based on, but I know Moneyball was thought of to be an insane choice to adapt into a movie. So kudos to Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian for that one. However, I think it is Dean Pelton (and team)'s moment in the sun.
Will Win: The Descendants
Should Win: Moneyball
The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius)
Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig)
Margin Call (J.C. Chandor)
Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)
A Separation (Asghar Farhadi)
Here is my spoiler category. Conventional wisdom has either The Artist or Midnight in Paris taking this one, but I'm going all in on a Bridesmaids upset. Otherwise the ceremony is going to be the most boring thing ever. It won't happen but sometimes blind hope is all one has in this world.
Will Win: Bridesmaids
Should Win: Bridesmaids
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