Oscar Picks 2011

This will be the first year in six years that I will not be able to watch the Oscars live. Only the second time I'll miss them since I can remember. This is especially upsetting because this year I actually saw all 10 nominees for Best Picture. I will be in New Orleans at a conference for work. I will attempt to keep myself in the dark until I can watch on Tuesday, so please, do not text, e-mail or call me to discuss it. I will publish my thoughts after I watch and digest.

For now, here are my picks. I decided to do more categories than usual to see how good I really am. As always, I accept gifts if I get 100%.

Best Picture
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids Are Alright
The King's Speech
The Fighter
The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
127 Hours

You can see (in a nutshell) what I thought of most of these on my "best of" list and my year recap. This is the first year in awhile where the winner is somewhat of mystery. 127 Hours is a phenomenal movie—every time I think about it I like to more and more. In a weaker year, I think it would have blown the competition out of the water. And Inception, well it is still my favorite movie of the year, but I get that the oldies in the Academy didn't quite understand it, though I judge them. It's really a two-horse race this year. The Social Network won most of the critics’ awards this season; The King's Speech most of the guild awards. The guilds have a lot of overlap with Academy voters so most seem to think that gives The King's Speech the edge. I'm not as sure. I feel like come voting time, people may think they've awarded The King's Speech enough. They will vote for The Social Network, a film that truly speaks for this year and this time. The film that was derided when it was announced and immediately praised on its release. Do I have that much faith in the Academy to reward the actual Best Picture? Eh, probably not.
Should Win: The Social NetworkWill Win: The King's Speech

Best DirectorDarren Aronofsky, Black SwanJoel and Ethan Coen, True GritDavid Fincher, The Social NetworkTom Hooper, The King's SpeechDavid O. Russell, The Fighter
Here is where I think The Social Network will be rewarded. The Coens just won, Tom Hooper managed to get amazing performances out of his actors, a job well done, but those actors could have done just as well under another director. I think the only one besides David Fincher who would really deserve it is Darren Aronofsky and I think Black Swan may be a little too weird for some Academy members. Plus, Fincher has been nominated before so some will consider this his "time." Fincher for the win.
Will Win: David Fincher
Should Win: David Fincher

Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Now this is a race that was over early. Colin Firth, my pick for should win last year will get his will win this year. I'm OK with that. I did love him and was very impressed with his performance in The King's Speech. But it didn't blow me away like Eisenberg, or even more so, Franco. Those were roles they disappeared into. I noticed it even more this weekend when on Friday I watched Zombieland and then Sunday rewatched The Social Network. Zombieland is what people mean when they say Eisenberg plays the same character over and over. I love that character and am completely fine with seeing him play it. He does something completely different in The Social Network. His normally emotive eyes are dead—so smug with the knowledge that even though friends and enemies may have sued him, he's already won. Then there is James Franco. He does something else. He carries the entire movie completely by himself. Not only does he make it entertaining, as much as such a terrible situation can be made entertaining, but also he elicited such a strong reaction from me. One I wasn't expecting and can say with confidence I had never experienced in a movie theater. He won't win but damn does he deserve to.

Will Win: Colin Firth
Should Win: (tie) James Franco or Jesse Eisenberg

Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Now here I agree with the general consensus. No disrespect to the other ladies. Michelle, I adore you. I enjoyed your movie. You made me cry. Haven't seen Rabbit Hole, but Nicole, you've had your turn. Jennifer, your movie really upset me, and not in a good way. Annette, I know everyone says it is your time but you really can't hold a candle this year. I have long been a fan of Natalie Portman. She is one of my ultimate girl crushes. I went and saw Black Swan alone and I remember just sitting and being in awe and looking at those around me thinking, "are you guys seeing this too?" The moment she won the Oscar is the second she steps on stage as the black swan. It's like the first half of the movie didn't happen. She transforms in front of you and it is nothing short of incredible.

Will Win: Natalie Portman
Should Win: Natalie Portman

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Christian Bale is the only thing that elevated The Fighter from your standard boxing movie to something else. It's still not one of my favorite movies this year and that's not a knock against it by any means. There are just movies I enjoyed way more. I just felt like, overall, I'd seen it before—except Christian Bale. How can Batman turn himself so completely into someone else? He does it and makes it look so effortless. Note: I do love Geoffrey Rush!

Will Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

This is a category I find myself not that excited about. Not quite sure why because all these ladies deserve to be here. I think I just really wanted Mila Kunis in the mix. My vote would go to Hailee Steinfeld and it just might happen. She holds her own against all those boys. Melissa Leo has been the front-runner, with good reason. But she just kind of leaves a bad taste in my mouth. In fact, I think this is where I'll pick the upset. There's always one and True Grit isn't going to win many of its nominated 10 Oscars. I say go Hailee!

Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld

Best Animated Film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

This needs no explanation. Toy Story 3 deserves to be Best Picture period, so this award is a gimmie at this point.

Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: Toy Story 3

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 HoursThe Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

This is a tough one. The Social Network will win but I'm struggling with should it? Creating drama out of a situation that mostly took place in front of a computer is a feat to be sure. The dialogue crackles so much it feels like you can't even take it all in at once. OK, it should. But I have to tip my hat to 127 Hours again and Toy Story 3. Both completely worthy.

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network

Original Screenplay
Another Year
The FighterInception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Now in my opinion Original Screenplay should go to the most original screenplay. If that was the case there would be no debate because Inception would win. But the dumb old Academy is going to give it to The King's Speech. It's a good movie but come on! It's a British drama. They've won before. It doesn't reek of originality. You screwed Christopher Nolan out of a director's nomination—AGAIN! This is where he should win. But he won't. Because the Academy is old and can't pay attention and understand movies more complicated than ones where a major part of the action requires a cup of tea. But here is where I hope I'm wrong.

Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Inception

Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception

Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Inception

Achievement in Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Will Win: Alice in Wonderland
Should Win: Alice in Wonderland

Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

Will Win: The Wolfman

Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Black Swan

Best Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: (tie) The Social Network & Inception

Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

Will Win: Inception

Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech Salt
The Social NetworkTrue Grit

Will Win: Inception

Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception (next year Harry!)